Understanding RNG in Aion

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    • Understanding RNG in Aion

      Hello people,
      I am writing this post because I'd like to bring some clarity into the confusion of RNG, that everyone seems to have stumble upon.
      To make it really simple, I'll explain the basics, based on Aion's 6.2 enchantment rates.
      Let's start with a classic one:
      - enchantment probability for ancient grade gear, with ancient grade stones, from +10 to +15 is 28%, according to aionpowerbook.com
      - every single time you enchant from +10 to +15, you have 28% chances and previous fail or success does not affect the next one.
      So, if you failed 10 times in a row it doesn't mean you should succeed on the next enchants.
      The chance is 28% every single time you attempt to enchant.
      - the more you keep on enchanting, the more chances you have for success (take a moment to fully grasp this concept)
      (however, since a failed enchant will get you back to +10, the number of stones to actually make it to +15 is insanely high... a success probability could be calculated but surely the amount of needed stones it too high to even make it worthwhile)
      - taking a break from enchanting or do it on "your lucky day" or when enough people on the server is enchanting, or your favorite enchanting spot... these are all just superstitions and you shouldn't base your gear enchanment on star alignment or on the horoscope or whatever "strange thing" people noticed on a specific time.
      - there is no enchanment fail-safe system in aion, which means you could theoretically fail forever.
      All you have is "odds" in a raw RNG system.


      ***Note: There is, however, no true RNG in gaming since computers are predictable machines.
      Ours is a pseudo-random, which means our enchanments or drop chances are generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula. This is okay but it's not really the "random" we're expecting.
      ***Note2: Currently it's unknown if NCsoft adopted a standard algorithm or if they added modifiers in it.
      But speculating on either they lie or tell the truth it's just a complete waste of time, period.


      Now it's time for a 6.2 enchantment guide so you may be more efficient with your stones are avoid wasting them as much as possible. If you fail an enchant between +10 and +15, you go back to +10 and with current rates, getting to +15 will take an over-exagerated amount of stones and we should try to be as efficient as possible.


      1) Ancient items:
      - enchant it from 0 to +10 only by using ancient stones
      - from +10 to +12, again, use ancient stones since it's relatively easy to get
      - from +12 to +15 use legendary stones
      - if you fail the legendary stone to +10, use ancients again until +12, then resume with legendary
      (reason being that legendary stones at these levels have 48% success rate, while ancient ones only 28%)
      Doing so, will allow you to avoid wasting more stones than you should.


      2) Legendary items:
      - from 0 to +3 use ancient stones since the chance for success is 55
      - from +3 to +6 the chance is 35% and although you could make it to +6, I'd say stop at +5 with ancient stones since continuous fails will drop your items to 0 many times and you'll loose too many stones.
      - from +5 to +15 legendary stones all the way


      3) Ultimate items:
      - same as legendary items, go with ancients from 0 to +3 (52% chance)
      - +4 to +6 chance is 32% but, like before, I'd stop at +5
      - +5 to +15 legendary stones all the way (the odds are still ok, lower but ok)
      (ultimate stones are no where to be found so we'll work with what we got... and, hopefully we can have max gear in, let's say 10-20 years from now)


      @Gameforge: All we want is more stones so we can get better enchants.
      The numbers above speak for themselves.
    • Nuke wrote:

      I suggest going +13 on ancient items using yellow stones. You will end up saving purple ones which you rarely get, while using more yellows that you can farm somehow.
      also +10 > +11 on purple.

      5% is low but rly, legend stones fail like nothing also.

      I wouldnt advise it on the ulti items tho cuz every try costs 260k xD
    • It is correct that the more you fail the higher chances of success you have next time.

      This is due to how probability works, and it directly prevents RNG from being negative forever, unless specifically stated to be so.

      Each time you fail you have a certain increased probability of success, because by each failure your chances of success mathematically increase; this means that with ancient gear +10 your probability of failure is like this:

      1 - 72%
      2 - 36%
      3 - 18%
      4 - 9%
      5 - 4.5%

      But combining raw probability chances together with Aion's pseudo-RNG increase your probability of failure further and decreases your probability of success further, this is intended and made by NC with the exact purpose of creating frustration which will lead you to purchase enchantment stones in the cash shop (as they do in Korea).

      This thus indicates the probability of you failing 10 times in a row is 7.2%, failing 20 times in a row 3.6%, and failing 30 times in a row is 2.4%.

      Wow, these probabilities seem quite unrealistic, how can this even happen?

      This is extremely simple, they can happen EXACTLY as how people used to proc 1%, 2% damage godstones 2-3 times in a row.

      Each success resets your probability of success and failure to their base values.

      Thus, succeeding 5 times in a row is:

      1. 28%
      2. 14%
      3. 7%
      4: 3.5%
      5: 1.75%

      With an average probability of succeeding 5 times in a row being 5.6% for ancient enchantment stones, and 9.6% for legendary enchantment stones.

      So then if you can hit that low fail probability of 10-20 times in a row so often, how is it possible that hitting the same probability rate of 5% and 10% is so hard?

      It's simple, because the actual probability of failure is MUCH higher than probability of success, you will always fail more than succeed.

      It's almost the same as casinos, once a "luck" machine has failed so many times over and took people's money, it is forced by probability to roll onto a successful result that gets someone more money than they put in it.
    • @Rym
      I also believe NCsoft are using an inhouse algorithm to screw us, forcing us to buy items from the cash shop rather than farm them.
      Same evil practice is being done by gameforge with their RNG loot boxes in the cash shop.
      Nowhere does they tell you the rates for those boxes because they will either have to lie or tell the truth and people seeing the rates are low and stay the hell away from their boxes.
      In those boxes if you have one ancient and one legendary, the chance will never be 50-50 because it's not random (and they'll never admit so they won't be forced to lie).
      It's more like: ancient has 90% chances and legendary 10% chances, so you'll get most of the time ancient stones and pay a heavy price for that crap.

      In conclusion, both ncsoft and gameforge are evil and both are committing atrocious crimes towards the well-being of the community.
      @gameforge: ofc, this is only a theoretical analysis... you know I love ya guys (NOT)
    • Griver83 wrote:

      Even if our rates are correct, doesn't mean that rates are good.
      If we fail 100- 300 gold/ 100- 200 legendary stones on each item- there must be a sourse of stones. Where can i get 100-200 legendary pve/pvp stones in 1 week????
      nobody is saying that you have to spend 100-200 stones every week. there is nothing that forces you to enchant every week. you play the game you gather them and you try. once it is done you don't need them anymore. so making this about per week makes no sense to me. the game is not set in stone to be played in x amount of weeks then you finished the game.
    • Noctis wrote:

      Nuke wrote:

      I suggest going +13 on ancient items using yellow stones. You will end up saving purple ones which you rarely get, while using more yellows that you can farm somehow.
      also +10 > +11 on purple.
      5% is low but rly, legend stones fail like nothing also.

      I wouldnt advise it on the ulti items tho cuz every try costs 260k xD
      If I have to watch this on every part I prerfer to use legendary stone to +11

    • @Galeas We need an exchange for genesis crystals to legendary enchantment stones or for legendary lydium to legendary enchantment stones or for ashuntal dredgion medals to legendary enchantment stones or for ancient to legendary enchantment stones or for abyss points to legendary enchantment stones. JUST ONE EXCHANGE (maybe also an exchange for legendary to ultimate)

      Because garrisons will be useless when u got full legendary gear, legendary and ultimate lydium is a little useless because u get such an high amount of it but u dont have any enchantment stones to upgrade your gear.

      btw . sorry for my bad english :D
    • SneakyGerald wrote:

      Noctis wrote:

      Nuke wrote:

      I suggest going +13 on ancient items using yellow stones. You will end up saving purple ones which you rarely get, while using more yellows that you can farm somehow.
      also +10 > +11 on purple.5% is low but rly, legend stones fail like nothing also.

      I wouldnt advise it on the ulti items tho cuz every try costs 260k xD
      If I have to watch this on every part I prerfer to use legendary stone to +11

      wish I recorded failing 10 legend stones in a row for +11

      but i get ur point, kinah expense does add up; 65k ea try, 30 stones, 2mil down. and its slow xD i usually lose the patience also, but considering how slow getting legend stones is, smart thinking is it should be worth it
    • The problem is i never have seen somutch RNG/Gamble going on in this game for 9 years playing,
      it looks like we dont have any choice in this game anymore thats all gone.

      Even if you buy this chest/boxes from 249 coins from store how big is the chance you get what you need? we dont know howmany chance we have on for example 3x Legendary stones inside this 249 coins overpriced chest.

      Maby they did put 1 set x3 Legendary and 10 set x3 ancient ench stones in it and then the other shitty things that are in it , this is going on all over the place with all this RNG chests arround in store atm !!

      i did stop buying this things as more and more people dont buy this cheat chests !
      Its annoying/way to expencive/no fun anymore this shop sry lmao what did they do with it meh!
      Gold sand shop notting new stuff they added yet Boring as hell same as normal shop!
      Files

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Parra ().

    • It got more ridiculous since they wrote "large chance of legendary stones" in the description. Thats not only normal RNG, they truly incite player to participate in this p2w sh*t. I mean... 250 Aion coins (round about 15 Euro - one hour or even more of work for many people) and you maybe! get the stuff you want and even if you get it, it would be rip-off. This needs to be regulated by the country (germany) or the european union.

      The post was edited 3 times, last by Lemonzz ().

    • Lemonzz wrote:

      @Galeas We need an exchange for genesis crystals to legendary enchantment stones or for legendary lydium to legendary enchantment stones or for ashuntal dredgion medals to legendary enchantment stones or for ancient to legendary enchantment stones or for abyss points to legendary enchantment stones. JUST ONE EXCHANGE (maybe also an exchange for legendary to ultimate)

      Because garrisons will be useless when u got full legendary gear, legendary and ultimate lydium is a little useless because u get such an high amount of it but u dont have any enchantment stones to upgrade your gear.

      btw . sorry for my bad english :D
      How are they useless? Can always take gear and sell it to an npc, nice kinah.
    • even haramel becomes useless once you get past lvl 10. at some point you don't need most of the stuff this games offers you. most things are like that in this game. or many other games.
      you can still farm more crystal to enchant other gear, maybe to sell. or use garrisons to pvp.